How Do We Make Decisions?

By Melisa Gulsun Ozmen

How do we make our decisions in life, whether they be a simple day-to-day decision or a long-term one affecting our future? Do we do it based on our previous knowledge and experience, our intuitions and thoughts, or based on others’ influence? It varies from person to person and is closely related to our personality type. While some people cannot make major decisions without taking into account the opinions of people significant to them, some others may make all of their decisions without even considering others’ opinions, even regarding issues relevant to the people close to them. This can cause them a great deal of conflict in their interpersonal relations. In order to achieve predictable and desirable outcomes from our tough life decisions, we should ideally, whether consciously or unconsciously base our decision-making on two structures: deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning. However, a number of people do not use either of these logical decision-making processes due to their own “cognitive misery,” or operating from a superficial state and not relying on logical thinking. The majority of people operate from this cognitive misery mode simply because logical thinking requires a lot of time and energy to be applied comprehensively. Instead, people tend to use these two logical approaches only when they have sufficient time, when the subject to be decided is important, and when they have low cognitive load.
We make our decisions based on deductive reasoning when we draw specific conclusions from general principles. If we know in general that monkeys like bananas, then we come to a conclusion that any monkey we see at the zoo will like bananas and we might offer a banana to communicate with a specific monkey. This type of reasoning is generally used in science to test hypotheses. Scientists make decisions based on proven theories, such as the effect of gravity or the rise of heated air. However, deductive reasoning may sometimes lead us into a fallacy trap in decision-making on an individual level due to scientific myths or the rapid evolution of science. As science evolves, some theories might be replaced by new theories that we are not aware of, and we may still base some of our decisions on these invalidated theories because we believe in “scientists.” A fallacy might also occur in our decision-making process when our decisions depend entirely on deductive reasoning. We may choose to make our decisions based on general theories endorsed by scientists who have relied on deductive reasoning, but the outcome of our decision may harm us on an individual level. We have witnessed this kind of decision-making fallacy, where many people suffered and are still personally suffering from the deductive reasoning decisions of health authorities during the Covid-19 period. In light of this, how should we make our decisions when deductive reasoning does not always work for us on an individual level?
In that case, we can try the other type of logical decision-making process, inductive reasoning, where we draw general conclusions from particular facts and clues. With inductive reasoning, we do our research, collect data, scrutinize it, connect the dots and finally come to a conclusion in our decision-making process. Despite Sherlock Holmes’ supposed reliance on deduction, inductive reasoning is what detectives use when they follow the clues that a suspect leaves behind on the scene of a crime. A detective observes clues, collects evidence and then combines them to make a decision that the suspect is the murderer. For scientists, inductive reasoning is used to generate new theories and is generally used more in social sciences such as political science than in physical and medical sciences. This type of decision-making process may take longer and require more patience than deductive reasoning because it does not allow us to depend on previously acquired data. We have to spend time and effort creating the data on which our decision will be based. As with deductive reasoning, there is no guarantee that inductive reasoning will give us a completely correct result, but it can give us more customized and personalized results than deductive reasoning can provide.
Whether we use deductive or inductive reasoning in our decision-making process, such logical thinking needs time, effort and energy. It is when we live in a state of cognitive misery from avoiding logical thinking and we surrender to superficiality in our decision-making process, that we will likely get undesirable outcomes. We then may blame others for the unwanted results that we have created unconsciously by staying in our state of cognitive misery. Logical thinking is a must for a responsible and independent life. It gives us our free will and the power to direct our lives. Unfortunately, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence and its overwhelming presence in our daily lives make logical thinking harder and harder, which pushes us more and more toward cognitive misery. It is almost like we have subcontracted our logical thinking ability to technology and artificial intelligence. Undeniably, using a GPS for navigation while driving is a convenience, but before GPS, we used to read maps, which forced our brains to engage in logical thinking.
In my personal life, I have put some boundaries around my engagement with technology and artificial intelligence to avoid a state of cognitive misery. I usually rely on inductive reasoning in my decision-making process because, by trial and error, I have found that it suits my personality better. You can test which type of reasoning gives better results in your own personal life. At times, spending a great deal of time on logical thinking might seem to others as too slow, lazy or risk averse, leading to lost opportunities, but logical thinking minimizes the failures and bad decisions which cost more in the long run. Overall, you should be aware of judgments and pressures coming from people close to you and not give up on logical thinking when making important decisions in your life. Keep in mind that the majority of people live in cognitive misery due to their overwhelming daily lives and try not to be one of them! ■